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Analysis
- Spot palladium prices are correcting their October-December rally. Given that other precious metals have been trending lower, it did look as though the elastic band got over-stretched.
- The stochastics are falling fast so we expect the correction to continue for a while longer. The 61.8% Fibo is at $674 per oz; the UTL is at $641 per oz.
Macro factors
The rally in palladium was quite remarkable considering the other precious metals had fallen so far. But with other industrial metals and equities doing well, it appeared that palladium prices had broken their anchor to gold.
ETF redemptions continue and funds cut their exposure slightly last week, reducing their net long position by 485 contracts. This ended five consecutive weeks of buying duting which the net long fund position climbed to 15,624 contracts from 4,969 contracts as of November 1.
The market may start to get nervous about the likelihood that China removes its tax incentive on sales of small-engine cars at the end of the year. Chinese car sales having been booming in recent months at an unsustainable pace so we should brace for weaker sales in 2017.
Conclusion
Palladium looked out of sync with the other precious metals so we are not surprised prices are correcting. We would, however, expect good underlying support around $650-675 per oz.
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All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.
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The post PALLADIUM TODAY – Price correction continues appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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