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Gold prices run into resistance

FastMarkets

In the precious metals this morning, Friday March 31, gold and silver prices are slightly weaker with spot gold at $1,241.71 per oz, while platinum prices are up 0.3% and palladium prices are unchanged. This comes after a day of general weakness on Thursday that saw gold, silver and platinum prices fall between 0.5-0.8%, with gold prices closing at $1,243.50 per oz, while palladium bucked the trend with a 0.6% gain to $791 per oz.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are down an average of 0.4% this morning,  this despite better Chinese PMI data.

Zinc prices have fallen the most, with a decline of 1% to $2,817.50 per tonne, followed by lead prices that are down 0.7%, while copper prices are off 0.4% at $5,893 per tonne – little changed from this time on Thursday. Volume has been slightly above average at 6,106 lots as of 06:32 BST.

This pull-back comes after a general day of strength on Thursday, although some weakness emerged at the end of the day. It may be that end-of-month and quarter profit-taking started to emerge at the end of the day. News overnight that the strike at Peru’s Cerro Verde copper mine is over may be weighing on sentiment too.

In Shanghai, the May base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Zinc prices lead on the downside with a drop of 1.1%, lead and tin prices are off 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, while nickel, copper and aluminium are up an average of 0.4%, with copper prices at 47,660 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.5% at 47,270-47,470 yuan per tonne, with the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio firmer at 8.1, which means the arb window remains closed.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are weaker, they are down 1.2%, on SHFE steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are off 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are down 0.5% at $52.79 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries is firmer at around 2.41%.

Equities were stronger on Thursday, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.2% and the Dow closed up 0.3%. Equities in Asia, however, are for the most part weaker, but after a strong quarter some of the weakness is thought to be end of period profit-taking. The Nikkei and Kospi are off 0.1%, the Hang Seng is down 0.6%, the ASX 200 is off 0.5%, but the CSI 300 is bucking the trend with a 0.3% gain.

In FX, the dollar index continues to rebound, it was recently quoted at 100.55, conversely the euro is weaker at 1.0677, as is the yen at 111.86, while the sterling is firmer at 1.2473 and the Australian dollar at 0.7644 is little changed. The yuan is weaker at 6.8840, the rupee and peso are the stronger emerging market currencies, while the other ones we follower are on a back footing, especially the rand that has fallen to 13.4420, from a recent high of 12.3080 – the weakness prompted by South African president Jacob Zuma sacking his finance minister Pravin Gordhan and making numerous other cabinet changes.

The economic calendar is packed with important data today with generally better Japanese data emerging, see table below, although the drop in household spending was disappointing. Chinese manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.8, the highest since mid-2012 and non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.1 from 54.2. German retail sales grew 1.8%, this significantly stronger than the 0.7% gain expected. There is more CPI data out across the euro-zone, plus a host of other important data, again see table below. US data includes personal income, spending, PCE prices, Chicago PMI and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member William Dudley and UK Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Haldane are speaking.

The trends in the base metals remain broadly upward, albeit to varying degrees, but the upside going is laboured for most of the metals as higher prices attract selling. Thursday’s firmer tone seems to have run into month-end profit-taking and there may be more of that around today. Aluminium remains the one metal that has broken higher recently and looks well placed to extend higher. The better Chinese PMI data bodes well, especially as we cross over into the second quarter.

Gold and silver prices have put in a strong rebound since the March FOMC rate rise, but prices are struggling to overcome the late-February/early-March highs and with risk-on returning to broader markets that is not so surprising. But, we expect dips to remain well supported and there may well be further haven asset demand as we move through April when political uncertainties rise over the progress of Brexit and ahead of the French election.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

FastMarkets

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Gold prices pause ahead of resistance

FastMarkets

Precious metals are split this morning, Thursday March 30, with spot gold and silver prices down 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, with gold at $1,250.34 per oz, while the PGMs are firmer with platinum prices up 0.6% at $957.40 per oz and palladium prices up 0.3% at $788.70 per oz. Platinum prices are at a $293 per oz discount to gold prices.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are slightly weaker across the board this morning, with three-month prices down between 0.1% for aluminium and 0.5% for lead, nickel and copper, with the latter at $5,877 per tonne.

Volume has been light with 3,297 lots traded as of 06:20 BST. Today’s weaker tone follows a day of gains on Wednesday when prices closed up an average of 0.6%, which saw aluminium prices set fresh highs for the year at $1,961 per tonne.

In Shanghai, the May base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed, zinc prices lead the upside with a 1.8% gain, while lead prices are off 1.2%, tin prices are down 0.2%. Nickel prices are up 0.5%, aluminium prices are little changed and copper prices are up 0.4% at 47,450 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.1% at 47,100-47,220 yuan per tonne, with the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio at 8.07, which means the arb window remains closed.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are slightly weaker, they are down 0.4%. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 0.4%, while gold and silver prices are off an average of 0.2%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.1% at $52.48 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries is weaker at around 2.39%.

Equities were mixed on Wednesday, despite the UK triggering Article 50 the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.3% but the Dow closed down 0.2%. Equities in Asia this morning are for the most part weaker with the Nikkei off 0.9%, the Hang Seng is down 0.5%, the CSI 300 is down 1.13%, the Kospi is off 0.3%, but the ASX 200 is bucking the trend with a 0.4% gain.

In FX, the dollar index continues to rebound and was recently quoted at 100.04, conversely the euro is weaker at 1.0754, the yen is little changed at 111.14, while sterling at 1.2440 and the Australian dollar at 0.7659, are firmer than at this time on Wednesday. The yuan has firmed slightly to 6.8803, the rupee and peso are consolidating recent gains, the rand is on a back footing, while the rest are consolidating.

On the economic agenda there is CPI data out in Spain and Germany and US data includes initial jobless claims, final GDP, GDP prices, natural gas storage and US Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan is speaking – see table below for more details.

Aluminium prices stand out as the leader as they broke higher on Wednesday. Zinc, copper and lead prices are nibbling away at overhead resistance and we wait to see how much selling lurks above. Nickel prices have not managed to get much lift, they are seeing what underlying support is like, while tin prices have been quite choppy of late, but they do seem to have an upside bias again. There may be some position adjusting/book-squaring ahead of the end of the first quarter and we wait to see, as we expect, if consumer interest picks up as we move into the second quarter.

Gold prices have rebounded well but appear to have run into selling ahead of the February highs, but for now the sellers do not seem to be prepared to chase prices lower, so it may be a question of the buyers having to absorb what selling there is at these levels, before prices can move higher again. Silver is following gold, palladium prices are consolidating having recently set fresh highs, while platinum prices are fairly listless.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

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Gold prices face headwinds as risk-on returns

FastMarkets

Precious metals are consolidating recent gains this morning, Wednesday March 29, prices are ranged between silver being down 0.5% at $18.05 per oz and platinum being up 0.4% at $953.70 per oz – gold prices are off 0.2% at $1,248.76 per oz and palladium prices at $789.90 per oz.

Base metals prices are consolidating on the London Metal Exchange this morning, with prices off an average of 0.2%. Nickel leads the decline with a 0.6% drop to $9,940 per tonne, the rest vary from lead prices being down 0.4%, to aluminium prices being up 0.1%. Three-month copper prices are off 0.3% at $5,872 per tonne.

Volume has been light with 4,477 lots traded as of 06:48 BST. This consolidation comes after a strong rebound on Tuesday, which saw prices close up an average of 1.3%. In turn Tuesday’s rebound followed Monday’s spike lower.

In Shanghai, the May base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up across the board with gains averaging 1.4%, led by a 2.5% gain in zinc prices and 2.4% in copper prices at 47,420 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 1.1% at 47,050-47,170 yuan per tonne, with the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio at 8.08, which means the arb window remains closed.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have started to rebound, they are up 2.1%. On the SHFE, steel rebar prices are up 2.6%, while gold and silver prices are off an average of 0.4%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.3% at 51.50 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries are around 2.42%.

Equities recovered from their jittery start to the week, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.8% on Tuesday and the Dow closed up 0.7%. Equities in Asia this morning, are mainly firmer, the Nikkei is off 0.1%, but the rest are stronger with the Hang Seng up 0.1%, the CSI 300 up 0.3%, the ASX 200 up 0.9% and the Kospi is up 0.2%.

In FX, the dollar index is rebounding having gapped lower on Monday morning. At 99.84, the index has now closed that gap – the low on Monday was 98.85. The rebound in the dollar has weakened the other major currencies with the euro recently quoted at 1.0799, sterling is at 1.2389, the yen is at 111.22, although the Australian dollar has rebounded to 0.7635. The yuan has eased slightly to 6.8916, the rupee is strengthening in line with the stronger dollar, while the other emerging market currencies are weaker, led by the rand.

On the economic agenda, Japan’s retail sales disappointed, rising just 0.1%, while German import prices climbed 0.7%. Data out later includes UK lending and money supply and in the USA there is data on pending home sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Charles Evans is speaking – see table below for more details.

The rebound in the base metals prices suggests underlying sentiment remains strong enough to encourage solid dip-buying, but for most of the metals there is not enough follow-through buying yet to absorb the overhead selling that is still around. Aluminium seems the most bullish of the metals at present, with prices just $11 per tonne below the March 1 peak. We wait to see if the buying pressure picks up as we approach the seasonally busier second quarter and we think it will based on the economic data flow.

Gold prices have rebounded well, but have run into resistance ahead of the February highs. With risk-on returning to broader markets and with the dollar rebounding it is not surprising that gold prices are experiencing a headwind today, but with the UK about to trigger Article 50 and the French election less than a month away, we would expect precious metals prices to be well supported.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

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You cannot legislate the poor into freedom...

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GOLD TODAY: Challenging the February price highs

Short Term: Medium Term: Long Term: Resistances: R1 1,228 20 DMA R2 1,249 50% Fibo Jul-Dec sell-off R3 1,263.90 Feb 27 high R4 1,292 DTL R5 1,308 Support: S1 1,228 20 DMA S2 1,240.65 recent low S3 1,210 38.2% Fibo dec-Feb rally S4 1,195 Mar 10 low Stochastics:Bullish-to-neutral Legend: BB – Bollinger band DMA – daily moving average Fibo – Fibonacci retracement level H&S – head-and-shouder pattern HRL – horizontal resistance line R/SL – resistance/support line UTL – uptrend line Technical Comment Analysis Spot gold prices are rebounding strongly after the sharp retreat between February 27 and March 10. Prices have climbed back to $1,261.05 per oz. The high in February was $1,263.90; the low on March 10 was $1,195 per oz. The 20 DMA had rolled over to the downside but it has since flattened out. It has yet to turn higher, though. The stochastics are holding up in high ground but they are crossed lower, which suggests some lack of buying interest. We said in a recent report that we saw the sell-off of late as another correction within the overall upward trend – this seems to be the case. We still think gold prices are emerging into a bull market although so far prices have climbed only 12.5% above the December low; a 20% move is deemed necessary to qualify as a bull market. That would require a move to $1,347 per oz, which is still a long way away. Macro picture We see the recent sell-off in gold prices as tied to the sudden build-up in expectations for a March US rate rise; with that now out the way, the underlying bullish drivers have returned to the driving seat and have been augmented by the recent pick-up in risk-off trading. There is more chatter about the reflation trade (or Trump trade) being unwound, especially now that President Donald Trump has failed to get his healthcare reform bill through Congress. Will he struggle to get other reforms through? This could lead to a larger correction although this morning the markets look more settled than they did yesterday. A rebound in other markets and a return to risk-on could be a headwind for gold prices. But with the UK about to trigger Article 50 and with the French election less than a month away, political concerns look set to grow. Although it looks unlikely that Marine Le Pen will be the next French president, there is no doubt that if she were to win it would likely really spook the markets. So we do expect markets to reduce risk further April 23, the date of the first round of the French election, nears. Last week’s CFTC data showed funds returned as net buyers, adding 10,214 contracts to their net long position. In the two preceding weeks they had cut the position by 57,760 contracts. Last week saw 9,404 contracts of fresh buying and 810 contracts of short-covering. Conclusion We remain bullish for gold and expect safe-haven buying to remain strong ahead of the French election. All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

The post GOLD TODAY: Challenging the February price highs appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

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Gold prices hold on to yesterday’s gains

FastMarkets

Gold prices have held on to Monday’s gains with spot prices at $1,254.30 per oz, this morning, Tuesday march 28, platinum prices are up 0.5% at $970.90, while the others are little changed. This comes after a generally firmer day for the precious metals on Monday that saw fresh buying in gold, silver and platinum, as risk-off in other markets buoyed haven assets, the exception was palladium where prices corrected to $791 per oz, having in recent days broken higher to $815 per oz.

The base metals on the London Metal Exchange are little changed this morning, with three-month copper prices at $5,799 per tonne and volume has been light with 4,937 lots traded as of 05:55 BST.

This comes after a shakeout and bounce on Monday, that saw a knee-jerk reaction on the downside following US president Donald Trump’s failure in getting his healthcare bill passed. At Monday’s lows, prices on the base metals complex had dropped an average of 2.5%, led by a 3.2% drop in zinc prices to $2,739 per tonne, but they recouped some lost ground later in the afternoon and ended the day down an average of 0.9%.

Base metals prices in Shanghai remain mixed this morning with prices down an average of 0.8%, but this is skewed by a 3.2% drop in lead prices, while zinc prices are down 1.6% and tin prices are off 0.6%. The rest of the base metals are firmer with aluminium little changed, nickel prices are up 0.2% and May copper prices are up 0.6% at 46,800 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are also up 0.6% at 46,450-46,650 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb is weaker at 8.07.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices are unchanged on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel rebar prices are up 1%, silver prices are up 0.6% and gold prices are up 0.3%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.4% at $51 per barrel and the yield on the 10-year US treasuries are around 2.38%.

Equities seem to have got over Monday’s jitters, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Dow closed off 0.2% having earlier been down around 0.9%, but Asia has generally rebounded this morning with the Nikkei up 1%, the Hang Seng is up 0.6%, the Kospi is up 0.2%, the ASX 200 is up 1.3%, although the CSI 300 is off 0.2%. Key now will be whether the markets see the recent sell-off as an opportunity to bargain hunt, or whether they shift to the side lines.

In FX, the dollar index remains weak at 99.16, although the index is above Monday’s spike lower of 98.85, which pierced the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern on the chart – so that is something that will need careful monitoring. Monday’s risk-off sell-off that hit the dollar led to gaps higher in many of the currencies with the euro leaping to a high of 1.0906, the currency was recently quoted at 1.0870, which is still above the gap. The sterling remains firmer at 1.2571, the yen is at 110.57, but the Australian dollar remains weak at 0.7612, no doubt dragged lower by weaker metals prices, especially iron ore prices.

The yuan is firmer at 6.8609 and the other emerging market currencies we follow look quite mixed. The peso, ringgit, rupiah and rupee strengthened as the dollar weakened, while they are giving back some of those gains this morning, while the rand and real weakened in line with the dollar and commodity prices.

Data out today is focused on the USA with the release of goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, HPI, consumer confidence and Richmond Manufacturing index. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan is speaking – see table below for more details.

The base metals have been on a back footing for some time now with upside initiatives being capped by overhead supply from stale long liquidation, profit-taking and forward selling. With strong overhead resistance, we should now get to see how bullish underlying sentiment is by seeing how well dips are supported. Underlying tails on Monday’s copper, aluminium, nickel and tin charts suggest fairly good support, while lead and zinc looked weaker. With Trump’s lack of progress, the UK about to trigger Article 50 and with the French election less than a month away, it is not surprising that the exuberance in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory has started to wane and markets are correcting. But, key will now be whether underlying economic activity is painting a bullish enough picture to prompt consumers to buy into the price weakness. Our overall view is that the economic outlook remains bullish.

Gold prices have latched on to the markets’ jitters and they also have all the political uncertainty that lies ahead to potentially benefit from too. As such, we remain bullish for gold prices, especially while the weaker dollar is struggling.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

The post Gold prices hold on to yesterday’s gains appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

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The Gold Bug (Edgar Allan Poe)

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March 27, 1980 : Silver Thursday, or the end of the The Hunt Brothers Story

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PALLADIUM TODAY: Prices break higher

Short Term: Medium Term: Long Term: Resistances: R1 797 Jan 2017 high R2 833 HRL Mar 2015 peak R3 911.50 HRL Sept 2014 high Support: S1 771 20 DMA S2 741 Feb 3 low Stochastics:Bullish Legend: BB – Bollinger band DMA – daily moving average Fibo – Fibonacci retracement line H&S – head-and-shoulder(s) formation (H)S/RL – (horizontal) support/resistance line MACD – moving average convergence/divergence UTL – uptrend line Technical Comment Analysis Prices broke up through $797 per oz resistance on Thursday March 23, taking prices to $809 per oz, the highest they have been since May 2015. The recent low was above the January low at $711 per oz and well above the UTL, which is now at $701 per oz, which suggested good underlying support. Judging by the previous peaks ahead of $800 per oz, it looks as though there was scale-up producer selling above the market. Now prices have moved up through $800, we wait to see where the next selling levels are. The long-term chart (see inset) shows a band of supply running up to $833 per oz, which is likely to be the next target.  Macro factors ETF investors have been showing renewed interest in palladium – holdings have been climbing since mid-March. We wait to see if the move up through resistance attracts more fund buying.  The funds trading on Nymex have been quiet in recent months. There has been a slight pick-up in shorting from a low base while the longs have been increasing their exposure too. The gross long position at 20,937 contracts is, however, more or less in mid-range compared with where it was over the past few years at 12,824-26,460 contracts. Given where the gross long and short positions are, either camp is well placed to increase its exposure. Again we wait to see if the break higher has been driven by fund buying. With palladium’s use tied to the automotive market, we are wary about the metal’s timing to push higher; if anything, the Chinese automotive sector looks set to weaken after a very strong year last year while US auto sales have also come off the boil slightly.  Conclusion Palladium’s bull market has followed a choppy path for most of 2016, involving some large pullbacks along the way; this pattern seems to have rolled into 2017 too. Until recently, better economic data pointed to a stronger demand outlook but although we expect general economic data to continue to improve we also expect some slowdown in the auto industry, especially in China.  We have said we are not overly bullish about palladium prices at these levels unless investor interest picks-up considerably. If ETF and funds do not start to increase exposure then we would be cautious about this break-out. All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

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Palladium prices break higher, at levels last seen in May 2015

FastMarkets

Gold prices are off 0.2% this morning, Friday March 24, at $1,243.05 per oz, silver and platinum prices are slightly weaker too, while palladium prices are consolidating the gains made yesterday when prices pushed higher through resistance at $797 per oz to set a high of $809 per oz, prices were recently quoted at $802.1 per oz. On Thursday, the precious metals complex rallied an average of 0.5%, led by a 1.7% rise in palladium prices.

The base metals are slightly weaker this morning, with London Metal Exchange prices down an average of 0.3% as of 06:20 GMT.

Zinc prices are unchanged at $2,824.50 per tonne, aluminium and tin prices are off 0.2%, while copper leads the drop with a 0.6% fall to $5,817 per tonne. Volume has been average with 5,857 lots traded as of 06:20 GMT. On Thursday, the base metals were in two camps – copper and aluminium prices closed up 0.3%, the rest were unchanged to lower with an average loss of 0.7%, led by a 1.4% drop in zinc prices.

In Shanghai, base metals traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are for the most part weaker, copper prices are little changed, with a 10 yuan gain to 46,970 yuan per tonne. The rest are down an average of 0.8%, led by a 1.7% drop in lead prices, lead being the metal that was up the 2.3% at this time on Thursday morning. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are down 0.2% at 46,650-46,850 yuan per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio has fallen to 8.06, meaning that SHFE prices are falling at a faster pace than LME prices.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices are off 0.2% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are off 0.4%, gold prices are down 0.2% and silver prices are off 0.1%.

Equities in Europe rebounded on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 0.9%, while the main US equity indices closed down around 0.1%. In Asia this morning, equities are for the most part bullish with the Nikkei up 0.9%, the CSI 300 and ASX 200 are up 0.8%, while the Hang Seng is little changed and the Kospi is down 0.2%.

In FX, the dollar index is slightly off recent lows, but at 99.98 is still below the 100 level and therefore is looking weak, the euro is at 1.0765, the sterling is slightly weaker at 1.2475, while the yen is firmer at 111.47 and the Australian dollar is little changed at 0.7617. The yuan is at 6.970 and the other emerging market currencies we follow are little changed.

The economic agenda is busy with flash manufacturing and services data out across the developed world – Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.6, from 53.3 in February, later there is PMI data out across Europe and the USA. In addition, there is data on UK mortgage approvals and US durable goods orders – see table below for more details.

The base metals are for the most part still consolidating as there appears to be overhead supply and while consumers are prepared to buy dips they do not seem to feel the need to chase prices higher. Reports that that the strike at Escondida will end may well weigh on copper sentiment for a while. This, combined with funds that have stale long positions, plus high levels of cathode stocks, could lead to further weakness, but overall we think the global economy is gaining momentum and that should be good for demand and there may still be restocking to be done once seasonal demand picks up in the second quarter. As such, we would avoid getting too bearish as we expect dips will run into good support.

Gold prices are holding up well, the bout of risk-off of late has underpinned prices, but overall investment confidence seems to remain bullish and that may prove a headwind for gold prices, although geopolitical heat is likely to turn up as the French election approaches.

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Gold prices remain robust but may face headwinds

FastMarkets

Precious metals are up an average of 0.3% this morning, Thursday March 23, spot gold prices are little changed at $1,246.07 per oz, silver prices are up 0.2%, platinum prices are up 0.4% and palladium prices are up 0.8%. Gold prices have generally been upbeat since March 15.

Volatility has picked up in the base metals trading on the London Metals Exchange in recent days, with prices down an average of 0.4% this morning. This is after prices rebounded on Wednesday afternoon following a bout of weakness that started on Monday.

Large cancellations of lead warrants on the LME on Wednesday, combined with concerns about flooding in Peru that is disrupting zinc and lead supply, seemed to have been behind the rebound.

This morning base metals prices are off between little changed for aluminium and down 0.7% for tin, three-month copper prices are off 0.3% at $5,820 per tonne. Volume has been low with 4,090 lots traded as of 06:14 GMT.

In Shanghai, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, are also rebounding, with prices up an average of 0.6%, nickel prices are bucking the trend with a 0.3% loss, while the rest are up between 2.3% for lead and 0.2% for tin. Copper prices are up 0.7% at 47,210 yuan per tonne. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are up 0.8% at 46,740-46,940 yuan per tonne, the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 8.11, meaning the arb window remains closed.

In other metals in China, September iron ore prices are down 1.3% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, on the SHFE, steel rebar prices are rebounding, they are up 0.3%, silver prices are off 0.1% and gold prices are up 0.2%. In international markets, spot Brent crude oil prices are up 0.2% at $50.90 per barrel, while the yield on the 10-year US treasuries are weaker at 2.41%.

The recent bout of weakness in equities started to run out of steam on Wednesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.3%, while the Dow closed off less than 0.1%. Equities in Asia this morning are for the most part firmer with the Nikkei, Kospi and CSI 300 up 0.2%, the ASX 200 is up 0.4% and the Hang Seng little changed. So was the recent risk-off just a nervous sell-off that has attracted bargain hunting, or is this rebound just a “dead cat bounce”?

Judging by continued weakness in the dollar index we would not be surprised if another wave of weakness followed. If it does not then it suggests underlying sentiment remains bullish and fairly robust. The dollar index was recently quoted at 99.66, the euro is holding up in high ground at 1.0800, the sterling is strong at 1.2511, as is the yen at 111.26 and the Australian dollar at 0.7664 is strengthening again too.

The yuan is flat at 6.8874 and most emerging currencies we follow are hovering just below recent highs, although the peso and rand are looking set to strengthen further.

The economic agenda is busy today with German GfK consumer climate, there is an ECB economic bulletin, an announcement on long term refinancing and EU consumer confidence, data on UK retail sales and realised sales and US data includes new home sales and natural gas storage. In addition UK Monetary Policy Committee member Ben Broadbent, US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen and US Federal Open Market Committee members Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan are speaking – see table below for more details.

Base metals prices have become choppier in recent weeks and the upsides do seem capped by overhead selling/supply, but dips are also tending to be short-lived, even if some have been quite severe. Overall, we would say sentiment remains mildly bullish in that dips are being bought and the sellers are not too interested in chasing prices lower, instead they seem prepared for prices to come to their selling levels. The exception is nickel that is looking weaker than the rest. On balance this suggests we may see more range-trading up at these relatively high price levels as the markets seem quite well balanced. Whether buying steps up a gear as we enter the second quarter remains to be seen.

Gold prices have rebounded again in recent days and the blip of risk-off this week has given prices a further boost. With the dollar still on a back footing, despite a firmer tone in other markets since Wednesday afternoon, gold prices are managing to hold up well, but they may start to struggle if equities and other assets classes regain their firmer tone.

Metal Bulletin publishes live futures reports throughout the day, covering major metals exchanges news and prices.

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Liked on YouTube: Favorite Gold Coins To Collect For Investment

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ZINC TODAY: Price weakness will prove to be transient

Short Term: Medium Term: Long Term: Resistances: R1 2,981 2017 high (Feb) R2 2,985 2016 high (Nov) R3 3,227 61.8% Fibo of 2006-2008 downtrend Support: 50 2,806 20 2,788 150 2,582 Support: S1 2,788 20 DMA S2 2,650 Key level S3 2,450 200 DMA S4 1,445 2016 low Stochastics: Legend: Refer to here. Technical Comment Momentum is positive and ADX is below 20, suggesting a weak uptrend in motion. Analysis Zinc is experiencing some downward pressure because selling orders are growing as prices move toward $3,000 per tonne. But zinc prices remain above its 20 DMA and its 50 DMA, which could suggest that sentiment is still friendly. In this context, we may retain our constructive stance over the very short term as long as key support at $2,650 per tonne is not breached on a daily closing basis. Looking at our monthly chart, we continue to see a bullish breakout pattern. Zinc seems to be attracted by the 50% Fibo of the 2006-2008 downtrend. A close above it may suggest that the bull market will continue over the coming months. On the upside, zinc needs to take out the 2016 high to make sure the uptrend will last longer. On the downside, we will pay close attention to its key support, a break of which may trigger further selling pressure towards the long-term 150 DMA, which is likely to determine the sustainability of the uptrend. Macro drivers LME zinc is down nearly 2% since the start of the week alongside most of its peers as investors scale back their reflation-oriented trades on waning optimism over US president Trump’s capability to boost the economy. Worryingly, the sell-off in LME zinc prices since Monday has been driven by increasing trading volumes, signalling strong conviction from market participants to cut their long positioning in zinc. The LME spec positioning in zinc was little changed over March 10-17 while zinc prices rallied strongly by nearly 7% over the same period. This is positive in that it suggests that last week’s rally was not purely speculative-driven; rather it was supported by tighter fundamentals. The tightness in the concentrate market has become extreme, judging by spot TCs reaching their lowest in years, which may spill over to the refined market by forcing smelters to cut output, especially in China. After Korea Zinc said in February it would cut 50,000 tonnes or 8% of its annual production, Zhuzhou, the largest domestic smelter, decided earlier this month to put 100,000 tpy of capacity on temporary but indefinite maintenance. Surprisingly, though, the NBS estimates that China’s refined production was up 4.4% year-on-year in the first two months of 2017, which suggests that smelters are still resilient for now. In the physical market, US premiums moved still higher this week due to the ongoing strike at Noranda Income Fund’s zinc processing facility in Canada, which is tightening available supply. In Asia, premiums moved slightly lower because demand was rather soft as prices were considered to be too high. In Europe, premiums were steady amid ample availability and subdued spot buying interest. Flows in visible inventories (LME & SHFE): Visible stocks, which remain elevated by historical norms, have resumed their decline since the start of March so the global supply/demand balance may tighten again. LME zinc stocks – at 378,150 tonnes as of March 21 – are down 5,950 tonnes or 2% so far in March (including an increase of 2,475 tonnes so far this week) after falling 11,975 tonnes or 3% in February. In the year to date, stocks are down 49,700 tonnes or 12% after dropping roughly 35,000 tonnes or 8% in 2016. SHFE zinc stocks – at 186,298 tonnes as of March 17 – are down 11,597 tonnes or 6onnes so far in March (including a fall of 8,490 tonnes last week) after climbing by 35,690 tonnes or 22% in February. In the year to date, stocks are up 33,474 tonnes or 22% after falling 47,604 tonnes or 10% in 2016. Supply/demand balance: The ILZSG estimates that the market was in a deficit of 27,400 tonnes in January 2017 compared with a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January 2016 after a deficit of 268,000 tonnes in the whole of 2016 compared with a surplus of 189,000 tonnes in 2015. The tighter fundamentals were driven by the demand side rather than supply, essentially owing to a notable surge in US apparent demand. Conclusion We retain our constructive view on zinc in the very short term in spite of the recent price weakness. We think the combination of dollar weakness, bullish ILZSG data, and neutral spec positioning is conducive for higher highs in the coming days and weeks. As a reminder, we have been bullish since January 9. That said, we recognise that an intensification of the pullback in risk appetite may spill over into zinc, which is why we may turn neutral in case of a firm break below our key support at $2,650 per tonne. We are constructive over the short, medium and long terms because we expect the fundamentals to tighten further over the course of 2017. On the supply side, we think that the tightness in the concentrate market will eventually transfer to the refined market, although we cannot rule out some short-term resilience from smelters. On the demand side, we think conditions for zinc will improve further this year on the back of robust economic growth dynamics. For more information, see our March zinc spotlight. All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

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PLATINUM TODAY: Finds support, rebounds; but seems in no hurry

Short Term: Medium Term: Long Term: Resistances: R1 915 DTL (broken at) R2 926 Oct 2016 lows R3 976 20 DMA R4 1,029 Feb 9 peak R5 1,045.50 Recent high R6 1,090 May 2016 peak R7 1,195 Aug 2016 peak R8 1,289 Jan 2015 peak Support: S1 1,012 UTL (broken at) S2 976 20 DMA S3 948 Jan 19 low S4 948 61.8% Fibo (Dec-Feb rally) S5 932 Mar 15 low S6 911 Feb low/HSL S7 889 Dec low S8 811 Jan low S9 807 Support 2004 S10 745 2008 low Stochastics:Bullish Legend: BB – Bollinger band DMA – daily moving average Fibo – Fibonacci retracement level (H)SL – (horizontal) support line H&S – head-and-shoulder(s) pattern U/DTL – up/downtrend line Technical Comment Analysis Platinum prices are rebounding after a significant sell-off that severely dented this year’s rally. The correction took prices below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of this year’s rally and got close to the December base and long-term UTL.  Another rebound is under way, but so far prices have not got back above the 20 DMA. The stochastics are bullish, however, so the rebound may have further to run. The medium-term chart, (see inset) is looking mildly bullish, but prices seem in no hurry to close the gap with gold prices.  Macro factors Investor interest in ETFs had flattened out again after shows of strength in the middle and late parts of February and again in mid-March; recent days have seen redemptions. Holdings stand at 2.38 million oz, up from 2.33 million oz on February 8 but below this year’s peak of 2.39 million oz on March 16. The funds’ trading Nymex turned more bearish in recent weeks with the net long fund position dropping to 30,175 contracts from 44,610 contracts at the end of February. Last week saw the net position drop 8,452 contracts, with 3,496 contracts of long liquidation and 4,957 contracts of short-selling – a double negative whammy. Since the most recent data point, March 14, prices have rallied to $969 per oz from $938, so it will be interesting to see if that has been prompted by short-covering or fresh buying. Both the gross short and gross long positions are in or near low ground, see report & chart.   Conclusion After the recent sharp pullback, platinum prices may be able to edge higher – the fundamentals are supportive, prices are relatively low and the overall economic climate is mildly bullish, although we do have concerns that the Europen auto market may struggle to see as strong a growth as it has seen over the past 18 months or so. On balance, though we are bullish for gold prices and that should support platinum prices too, especially as they remain at a discount to gold prices. All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

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GOLD TODAY: Price rebounding on opportunistic physical buying

Short Term: Medium Term: Long Term: Resistances: R1 1,262 200 DMA R2 1,375 2016 high (Jul) R3 1,400 Key level Support: 200 1,260 100 1,204 50 1,221 20 1,228 Support: S1 1,200 Key level S2 1,050 Medium-term support S3 1,046 2015 low Stochastics: Legend: Click here for details. Technical Comment Momentum is positive while ADX is below 20, suggesting a weak uptrend. Analysis Gold has rebounded strongly after finding reliable support at $1,200 per oz. It is now back above its 20 DMA, which could reflect an upwsing in sentiment. Still, given that prices remain below their 200 DMA, we will stick with our negative stance over the very short term (around one month). Over the longer term, we see the technical picture as fairly bearish because of the strong DTL, seen in our monthly chart. Unless gold moves firmly back above $1,300 per oz, which corresponds to the DTL from the all-time high in 2011, we will continue to believe the uptrend that started last year has ended. On the upside, gold needs to take out its 200 DMA to make sure the bull market will resume this year. On the downside, we will pay a close attention to the 20 DMA, a break of which may turn sentiment negative, and $1,200 per oz, a break of which could trigger intense selling pressure toward the 2016 low. Macro drivers Gold is up 0.3% so far this week after enjoying a rally of 2.1% last week amid a broad-based appreciation across metals. The outcome of the FOMC meeting on March 15 – a small rate increase and an unchanged rate outlook – resulted in some short covering in gold. Indeed, the Fed’s stance was relatively less hawkish than investors had feared, which triggered a sell-off in the dollar and a drop in US real rates. This benefited gold and other precious metals despite the concomitant surge in global risk appetite. Safe-haven demand for gold may surge in the coming days/weeks because geopolitical tensions are growing, exacerbated by rising populism. While the Dutch favoured the status quo in its parliamentary elections, French elections are looming, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen leading the polls. European investors may be tempted to boost their holdings in gold to hedge against a sell-off in risky assets. Investment and speculative flows: ETF investors bought about 11 tonnes of gold last week after selling roughly 17 tonnes in the preceding week. ETF investors are net sellers of 8 tonnes of gold so far in March after buying about 94 tonnes in February. Speculators cut their net long fund position significantly for a second straight week over March 7-14, according to the CFTC. Specs came back in on the long side, as they did during the previous Fed rate increases in December 2016 and December 2015.  Physicals: The Chinese physical market has improved in recent weeks thanks to improved physical demand after a fall in prices. Buyers are likely to remain highly price-sensitive. In India, rates have pushed still higher, reflecting stronger demand amid lower prices and the coming holiday and marriage season. See our latest physicals report, published on March 14, for more details. Conclusion We retain our negative stance over the very short term despite the recent price rebound caused by physical buying. But we would turn neutral on a firm break above the 200 DMA. As a reminder, we turned negative on gold on March 3 at $1,234.6 per oz. Our view is that US real rates will rise and the dollar will start to strengthen again on robust US macro data, which should be gold-negative. We are negative on gold for the next six months because we expect US real rates to climb due to the Fed tightening cycle. This should exert pressure on gold prices despite a possible pick-up in risk aversion, in our view. Read more in our March Spotlight. All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

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