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METALS MORNING VIEW 05/12: Metal prices consolidate while broader markets show weakness

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed in the morning of Wednesday December 5, with zinc and copper up by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the rest of the complex was little changed or weaker.

This follows a volatile day in markets on Tuesday, when the base metals were mixed, but when US equity markets were hit hard by nervousness over the flattening of the yield curve, which has inverted in some places.

Volume across the complex has been above average with 5,947 lots traded as at 7:20am London time.

The precious metals were weaker on Wednesday. Gold fell by 0.3% to $1,234.50 per oz recently while palladium was 0.5% lower. Silver was off 0.7%.

In China this morning, January contract prices for base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, with copper off by 1.2% at 49,330 yuan ($7,186) per tonne, nickel off by 0.8% and aluminium off by 0.5%, while the rest were up between 0.2% for tin and 0.5% for lead.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 0.9% at 49,350-49,630 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was firmer at 7.97, compared with 7.91 on Tuesday, this suggests Chinese copper prices have not pulled back to the same extent as LME copper prices.

In other metals in China, the May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 2.5% at 477.50 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the May steel rebar contract was up by 3.9%. The fact these basic building block metals and ore prices are strengthening bodes well and suggests yesterday’s weakness was more to do with the yield curve rather than President Donald Trump’s tweets on trade.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were easier, off by 0.2% $61.10 per barrel – the recent low being $57.52 per barrel. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker and has dropped below the 3% level to 2.9109% and the yield on the US 2-year and 5-year treasuries were at 2.7988% and 2.7870% respectively. The German 10-year bund yield has dropped to 0.2600%. The weaker yields suggest investors expect the US Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate rises, but the inverted yield curve is seen as a warning that an economic slowdown may be on the way.

Asian equity markets on Tuesday have followed the US markets lower: the Nikkei (-0.53%), the CSI 300 (-0.48%), the ASX 200 (-0.78%), the Kospi (-0.62%) and the Hang Seng (-1.59%).

This follows extremely weak performances in US markets on Tuesday, where the Dow Jones closed down by 3.1% at 25,027.07, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.8% at 3,189.25.

The dollar index spiked lower to 96.37 on Tuesday, but closed at 96.95 and was recently quoted at 97.11 – the stronger dollar and weaker US Treasury yields do not go hand-in-hand, suggesting the dollar was up for safe-haven reasons, and yesterday’s stronger yen (113.02) would support that view. The euro is consolidating around 1.3333, while the Australian dollar (0.7297) and sterling (1.2710) are weaker.

The rebound in the yuan has halted for now with the currency recently quoted at 6.8661 – this suggests confidence in the trade developments. The other emerging market currencies we follow are for the most part on a back footing, suggesting risk-off.

In data already out on Wednesday, China’s Caixin Services purchasing managers index (PMI) rebounded to 53.8 from 50.8 previously, later there is data on Spanish, Italian, French, German, European Union and United Kingdom services PMI, EU retail sales and the US beige book. In addition, European Central Bank Mario Draghi is speaking.

Copper prices have been the hardest hit by in recent days. Having spiked up to $6,352 per tonne on Monday on the trade news that came out of the G20 meeting, the selling has returned and prices are back in mid-ground. The other metals have done better at holding on to their gains following the trade developments, which suggests they may be being more reflective of what the trade deal means. It may be that copper has been the hardest hit as Comex copper was open yesterday evening when the Dow Jones was under pressure. Given the trade truce and the tightening fundamentals, we still expect a gradual switch to a “glass half full” outlook, from the “glass half empty” one we have held since June.

Gold prices have pulled back from Tuesday’s highs but the uptrend seems intact. With the US treasury yields falling we expect the dollar to head lower and that in turn is expected to support a firmer gold price.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 05/12: Metal prices consolidate while broader markets show weakness appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

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METALS MORNING VIEW 04/12: Metals prices rebound again after Monday’s rally ran into selling

Price gains inspired by the trade developments at the Group of Twenty (G20) summit over the weekend were sold into during afternoon trading on Monday December 3, but likewise the dips have been bought into again this morning.

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were up by an average of 0.5% on Tuesday morning, with all of the metals – bar nickel which was unchanged – in positive territory.

The fact the post-G20 reaction has not led to a huge spike higher means the uptrend may be more sustainable, especially as the dip has been bought into.

Volume across the complex has been above average with 7,536 lots traded as at 7.44am London time.

The precious metals were also stronger this morning with gains averaging 0.4%, helped by a weaker dollar and a stronger crude oil price.

In China this morning, the January contract prices for base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, with copper off by 0.7% at 49,660 yuan ($7,193) per tonne and lead off by 0.3%, while the rest were up between 0.1% for aluminium and 1.1% for zinc.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were down by 1.1% at 49,850-50,040 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was weaker at 7.91, compared with 7.94 on Monday – suggesting the LME is leading the stronger tone.

In other metals in China, the May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 1.8% at 472 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the June steel rebar contract was up by 1.3%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were stronger, up by 0.73% $62.32 per barrel – the recent low being $57.52 per barrel. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was weaker and has dropped below the 3% level to 2.9561%, while the German 10-year bund yield has dropped to 0.2980%. The weaker yields suggest investors expect the US Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate rises.

The enthusiasm seen in Asian equity markets on Monday has faded – the CSI 300 was up 0.21% on Tuesday, but the other indices we follow were lower: the Nikkei (-2.39%), the ASX 200 (-1.01%), the Kospi (-0.82%) and the Hang Seng (-0.03%).

This follows strong performances in western markets on Monday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 1.13% at 25,826.43, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 1.32% at 3,214.99.

The dollar index is weakening, with weaker US Treasury yields no doubt weighing on sentiment – the index was recently quoted at 96.69. The other major currencies we follow are for the most part firmer: euro (1.1391), the Australian dollar (0.7382) and the yen (113.06), while sterling (1.2765) is consolidating.

The yuan has continued to rebound and was recently quoted at 6.8400 – this suggests confidence in the trade developments. The other emerging market currencies we follow are mixed, suggesting a degree of uncertainty, although the ringgit is stronger, probably reflecting the stronger oil price.

In data already out on Tuesday, Spanish unemployment fell for the first time since July in November, declining by 0.06% from a month earlier. Later, we have data on UK construction spending, the EU’s producer price index, there is an EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting and data on US economic optimism. In addition, Bank of England governor Mark Carney, US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member John Williams and UK Monetary Policy Committee member Gertan Vlieghe are speaking.

Despite the selling that capped Monday’s price spikes, the fact buying has been seen again this morning is encouraging and suggests sentiment has turned more positive. The JP Morgan global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) held at 52.0 in November, suggesting the global economy is still expanding – albeit weakly – but this might now pick-up as the trade threat eases. We now wait to see if there is further follow-through buying on the back of the metals’ fundamentals. On balance, we expect a gradual switch to a ‘glass half full’ outlook, from the ‘glass half empty’ – one we have been in since June.

Gold prices are on the climb again and are a few dollars away from breaking above the October highs at $1,243.45 per oz. A weaker dollar and an escalation in US/Iran tensions, following Iran’s test-firing of a medium-range ballistic missile, are providing support. Silver is following gold’s lead, platinum remains weak, while at the other end of the spectrum, palladium prices remain strong having set fresh record highs on Monday.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 04/12: Metals prices rebound again after Monday’s rally ran into selling appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

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METALS MORNING VIEW 03/12: Metals react positively to G20 trade developments

Some progress at the Group of Twenty (G20) summit on US-China trade has given the three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange a boost, up by an average of 1.4%.

The LME zinc price gained 1%, while copper was up 1.9% and recently quoted at $6,314 per tonne. Volume across the complex has, not surprisingly, been strong with 14,686 lots traded as at 6:53am London time.

The precious metals were stronger too with gains averaging 1.1%, helped by a weaker dollar and reports that Qatar is to leave Opec, which, combined with the trade developments, has led to a 5% bounce in crude oil prices.

In China this morning, the January contract prices for base metals were stronger by an average of 1.9%; led by a 3.4% rise in zinc, while copper was up 1.1% at 50,120 yuan ($7,266) per tonne.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 1.5% at 50,310-50,700 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was weaker at 7.94, suggesting the LME is leading the stronger tone.

In other metals in China, the May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 1.9% at 463 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the June steel rebar contract was up by 1.2%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices had jumped by 5.06% this morning, to $62.09 per barrel – the recent low being $57.52 per barrel. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was firmer at 3.0447%, as was the German 10-year bund yield at 0.3400%, suggesting less risk-on in the markets.

Asian equity markets have reacted strongly to G20 developments with prices higher on Monday: the Nikkei (1.0%), the ASX 200 (1.84%), the Kospi (1.67%), the Hang Seng (2.40%) and the CSI 300 (2.77%).

This follows mixed performances in western markets on Friday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 0.79% at 25,538.46, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was off slightly by 0.3% at 3,173.13.

The dollar index is weakening, but remains in mid-range and was recently quoted at 96.79. The other major currencies are for the most part firmer: euro (1.1376), the Australian dollar (0.7375) and sterling (1.2787), but the yen is weaker at 113.51, again suggesting a degree of risk-on.

The yuan has jumped and was recently quoted at 6.8906, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are mixed, most are firmer or little changed, while the rupee is weaker.

The economic agenda is busy with the release of manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data, which is out across all regions. Japan’s reading came in at 52.2, up from a previous reading of 51.8 and China’s 50.2 just beat the 50.1 that was expected. Hopefully the respite in the trade war will help fuel an economic rebound in China and prevent the PMI slipping below the 50 level which would imply the economy is contracting. Other data that is out later includes US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing prices and US total vehicle sales.

In addition Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Richard Clarida is speaking three times, and FOMC member Lael Brainard and UK Monetary policy committee member Andrew Haldane are also speaking.

The G20 developments have seen the base metals prices gap higher, key will now be what follow-through action there is. Indeed, the developments have removed the immediate fear of the negative situation escalating which should give the global economy and commodities time to reflect their fundamentals again, which we think should be bullish.

For now, with the global economy receiving a boost, the rising tide is lifting all the metals we follow and rising oil prices should also be bullish for gold/commodity prices, especially if investors start to get interested in buying into commodity baskets.

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METALS MORNING VIEW 30/11: Base metals prices firm despite disappointing China data

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were firm on the morning of Friday November 30 despite the release of weaker-than-expected economic data from China earlier in the day.

The three-month tin price led the gains with a 0.6% increase to $18,620 per tonne and was closely followed by zinc and nickel, which were both up by 0.4%. Copper and lead managed to eke out mild gains of 0.2%, with the former at $6,215 per tonne, while aluminium was unchanged. Still, overall sentiment in the LME base metals was fairly positive with prices up by an average of 0.3%.

With November drawing to an end and investors focusing on the weekend’s Group of Twenty (G20) summit in Argentina, trading volumes have been low this morning – only 3,012 lots had been traded across the LME three-month base metals as at 6.26am London time.

In the precious metals, demand for haven assets remains fairly muted despite the softer dollar of late. Gold and silver prices were unchanged at $1,224 and $14.30 per oz respectively, but platinum continues to underperform with a drop of 0.4% to $815.10 per oz.

Conversely, platinum’s sister-metal palladium recorded a fresh record high of $1,191 per oz earlier this morning – it was recently at $1,118.40 per oz.

In China, most of the January contract prices for base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were up – the exceptions being aluminium and tin with falls of 0.7% and 0.1% respectively. Nickel and zinc recorded solid gains of 1.8% and 1.5% respectively, while copper and lead were more subdued with respective increases of 0.2% and 0.1%. On average, base metals prices on the SHFE were up by 0.5%.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were a tad weaker, down by 0.1% to 49,760-49,800 yuan ($7,164-7,170) per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was at 7.96.

In other metals in China, the most-traded January steel rebar contract on the SHFE was off by 1.8%, while the SHFE June contracts for gold and silver were up a modest 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. The January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (ZCE) edged up 5 yuan per tonne to 479 yuan per tonne.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil has attracted some bargain-buying near $60.00 per barrel this morning. In the bond market, US 10-year treasuries were slightly weaker, down by 0.07% at 3.0248 and similarly, the German 10-year bund yield was off by 0.36% at 0.3200.

The recent recovery in the US equity market has started to stall after it closed on a negative note on Thursday. Traders turned cautious amid fresh concerns that growth in the US economy has started to show signs of peaking. Sentiment was overshadowed by October’s weaker-than-expected pending home sales data. That said, Asian equity indexes were mostly higher this morning and largely ignored the overnight release of the negative Chinese economic data: Nikkei (0.4%), Topix (0.48%), Hang Seng (0.47%) and China CSI 300 (1.12%).

Following the sell-off on Wednesday, the dollar index has started to stabilize at 96.82. The other major currencies we follow were a tad weaker: the Australian dollar (0.7313), the euro (1.1384) and Sterling (1.2779).

It has been a busy start in terms of economic releases, with data already out showing China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data coming in well below market expectations at 50.0 and 53.4 respectively. In Japan, consumer confidence dipped to 42.9, from 43.0 previously and house starts were weaker than forecast at 0.3%. German data was mixed with the import price index for October up by 1%, beating an expected rise of 0.4%, while retail sales for the same month were down by 0.3% – against an expected 0.4% increase.

Later, we have the European Union’s headline and core flash consumer price index (CPI) and the Chicago PMI from the US. In addition, US Federal Open Market Committee member John Williams is due to speak.

The uncertainty surrounding this weekend’s G20 summit continues to dominate market focus. While base metals prices were largely up this morning, gains have been limited and should remain so until more direction emerges from G20 meetings. That said, any resolution from the summit would allow the base metals, which are generally in low ground, to stage an end-of-year rally, we feel. This is because a lot of the selling has run its course and a potential ceasefire or some type of framework to end the trade dispute between China and the US would likely attract pent-up demand from consumers looking to restock.

The precious metals, meanwhile, remain relatively quiet, though any tough rhetoric from either US President Donald Trump or his Chinese counterpart is likely to spark demand for haven assets. That said, platinum continues to struggle against the threat of US tariffs on automobile imports.

The post METALS MORNING VIEW 30/11: Base metals prices firm despite disappointing China data appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

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METALS MORNING VIEW 29/11: Metals prices consolidate gains after Fed comments, focus shifts to G20

Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were being pushed and pulled by cross currents this morning, Thursday November 29. Nickel, lead and tin showed gains averaging 0.4%, while copper, aluminium and zinc were down by an average of 0.4%. Copper was off by 0.4% at $6,230 per tonne.

Volume across the complex has been average with 5,189 lots traded as at 7.33am London time.

Wednesday’s more dovish tone from US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, saying that the central bank may soon be in a position to pause the interest rate hikes, had boosted confidence in the base metals market. As a result, base metals prices on the LME closed up with average gains of 1.4% on Wednesday, while equites rebounded, yields fell and the dollar weakened.

With the dollar weaker, the precious metals were for the most part firmer this morning; gold, silver and platinum prices were up by an average of 0.5%, with gold at $1,226.80 per oz, while palladium prices were consolidating.

The market is looking more confident this morning due to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve comments, but likewise it is still nervous about what developments there will be on trade at this weekend’s Group of Twenty (G20) summit, and so trade issues are likely to dominate for the rest of the week.

In China this morning, most of the January contract prices for base metals were firmer; led by a 1.2% rise in copper to 49,550 yuan ($7,124) per tonne, zinc, lead and nickel were up by an average of 0.7%, while aluminium and tin prices were down by 0.2%.

Spot copper prices in Changjiang were up by 1.3% at 49,670-49,860 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio was weaker at 7.95 after 7.99 on Wednesday, suggesting the LME is leading the stronger tone.

In other metals in China, the January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up by 1.3% at 476 yuan per tonne. On the SHFE, the January steel rebar contract was off by 0.2%.

In wider markets, spot Brent crude oil prices were firmer this morning, up by 1.01% at $59.16 per barrel – the recent low being $58.42 per barrel. The yield on US 10-year treasuries was considerably weaker at 3.0180%, while the German 10-year bund yield was also weaker at 0.3355%.

Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday: the Nikkei (0.39%), the ASX 200 (0.58%), the Kospi (0.28%), the Hang Seng (-0.92%) and the CSI 300 (-1.3%).

This follows stronger performances in western markets on Wednesday; in the United States, the Dow Jones closed up by 2.5% at 25,366.43, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.06% at 3,168.29. Powell’s comments came too late in the day to impact European equities, plus the European auto sector will still be concerned over whether President Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on imported vehicles.

The dollar index is weakening on the back of the Federal Reserve comments and was recently quoted at 96.65 – we wait to see if the comments turn out to be a trend changer for the dollar. Needless to say the other major currencies are firmer following the comments: yen (113.28), euro (1.1394), the Australian dollar (0.7330) and sterling (1.2831).

The yuan remains in low ground and was recently quoted at 6.9435, while the other emerging market currencies we follow are firmer due to the weaker dollar.

The economic agenda is busy – data already out shows French gross domestic product (GDP) growth unchanged at 0.4% and Spanish consumer price index (CPI) at 1.7%. Later there is data on German unemployment, UK lending and US releases that include personal income, spending and prices, initial jobless claims, pending home sales and natural gas storage. In addition, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is speaking and this evening the latest US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are released.

Wednesday saw the base metals gain some momentum which has boosted lead, aluminium, zinc and tin off recent lows, while nickel prices remain around the lows and copper is looking the best to try to break higher. Copper does, however, face considerable resistance on the charts between $6,296 and $6,394 per tonne – so with the uncertainty surrounding G20, we expect the upside will remained capped until the outcome of G20 is known.

Gold, like copper, is well placed to push higher and if there is follow-through enthusiasm about Powell’s comments then a weaker dollar could underpin a stronger gold price. Silver looks set to follow gold’s lead, while the platinum group metals may hold back as the auto market may be about to face stronger headwinds from tariffs.

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